Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know? /
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are...
| Основен автор: | Tetlock, Philip E. 1954- |
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| Формат: | Електронна книга |
| Език: | English |
| Публикувано: |
Princeton, N.J. :
Princeton University Press,
℗♭2005.
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| Предмети: | |
| Онлайн достъп: |
http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=286714 |
| Подобни документи: |
Print version::
Expert political judgment. |
| Резюме: |
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. |
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| Физически характеристики: |
1 online resource (xvi, 321 pages) : illustrations |
| Библиография: |
Includes bibliographical references and index. |
| ISBN: |
9781400830312 1400830311 |