Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography /
The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a qua...
Основен автор: | Lempert, Robert J. |
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Други автори: | Popper, Steven W., 1953-, Bankes, Steven C. |
Формат: | Електронна книга |
Език: | English |
Публикувано: |
Santa Monica, CA :
Rand,
2003.
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Предмети: | |
Онлайн достъп: |
http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=105339 |
Подобни документи: |
Print version::
Shaping the next one hundred years. |
Резюме: |
The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decis. |
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Описание на библ. документ: |
"MR-1626." |
Физически характеристики: |
1 online resource (xxi, 187 pages) |
ISBN: |
0833034855 9780833034854 |