Expert political judgment : how good is it? how can we know? /
| Основен автор: | Tetlock, Philip. |
|---|---|
| Формат: | Книга |
| Език: | English |
| Публикувано: |
Princeton, N.J. :
Princeton University Press,
c2005.
|
| Предмети: | |
| Онлайн достъп: |
Publisher description Table of contents only Book jacket |
Съдържание:
- Quantifying the unquantifiable
- The ego-deflating challenge of radical skepticism
- Knowing the limits of one's knowledge: foxes have better calibration and discrimination scores than hedgehogs
- Honoring reputational bets: foxes are better Bayesians than hedgehogs
- Contemplating counterfactuals: foxes are more willing than hedgehogs to entertain self-subversive scenarios
- The hedgehogs strike back
- Are we open-minded enough to acknowledge the limits of open-mindedness?
- Exploring the limits on objectivity and accountability.